Market predictions for 2023: what you should know before the year begins

 

The real estate market jumped in value during 2022, with prices for homes rising in many states. However, a different picture is on the horizon for the following year.

What will happen after the holidays, and could we see other changes?

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's Home Price Index (FHFA HPI), U.S. residential property values increased by 17% from the second quarter of 2021 to the same period this year.

In addition, compared to the first quarter of 2022, a 4% increase in home prices has been reported. However, starting in June, experts noticed that the monthly data trends began to slow down.

William Doerner, supervisory economist in FHFA's Research and Statistics Division, said that after prices rose rapidly through most of the second quarter, the pace of growth began to slow in consistency with other recent related data.

Although the data pointed to the highest extreme since last year, experts predict a turnaround in home prices looming in 2023.

Economic research firm Capital Economics stated that the significant increase in mortgage rates in the U.S. will have an impact on the average expense a buyer must cover when purchasing a property.

Mortgage rates soared after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced an increase in the benchmark interest rate. As a result, now, those planning to invest in residential property must spend more than a quarter of their annual income on mortgage payments alone, Capital Economics showed.

Other factors that may play a role include higher interest rates and high construction costs that exclude many prospective buyers.

As a result, both the construction industry and the real estate industry will see a sharp downturn next year.

In addition, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the supply of single-family properties will decrease in 2023 to cope with upward price pressure, as construction was also predicted to experience a decline next year.

Many buyers have backed out and have not invested as they had hoped due to high prices.

While the market appears to be more balanced, analysts believe that the rate of home purchases will fall due to rising interest rates and steadily increasing construction costs, as both factors continue to drive away a substantial portion of property buyers.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said this would be the first year since 2011 to see a drop in statistics related to single-family homes.

What happened to the fixed mortgage interest rate?

According to mortgage market analysis and outlook website Mortgage News Daily, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was estimated at 7.29%, making it the highest 30-year rate in the past two decades.

Experts said no one had anticipated a turn of events of that magnitude, as an interest rate of no more than 5% had been predicted.

Zillow, the real estate market firm, maintained the same forecast on home values in October. However, according to its monthly forecast, the national index of the cost per residential property will increase by only 1.3% in the next year, despite having risen by 12.9% from September 2021 to the same period in 2022.

Analysts anticipate that national home prices will drop by 1.4%, but there will be variations in each regional market.

They also believe home values will fall in 271 of the 896 U.S. regional real estate markets between September of this year and the same month in 2023.

 

The company's latest forecasts showed that home prices are expected to fall to the lowest in the following areas:

The Villages, Florida (6.9%)

Punta Gorda, Florida (6%)

Reno, Nevada (5.57%)

Honolulu, Hawaii (5.56%)

Spokane, Washington (5.52%)

According to the latest projections from real estate analysts, a 5% drop is expected by mid-2023 despite earlier predictions suggesting that property values would remain flat during that period. But prices are not the only thing that could decline, with the 30-year mortgage rate doubling since January, the volume of mortgage applications has also hit a more than two-decade low.

Real estate investment outlook for 2023

Housing in the USA has reached very high prices, but what will they be like next year? We share with you the market predictions and what is known about 2023.

Mortgage rates in the U.S. have risen so much, following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) benchmark interest rate hike, that average buyers of a property at the median price will now spend more than a quarter of their annual income on mortgage payments alone, according to estimates from the firm Capital Economics.

Prices started to rise during the pandemic, but what will they look like in 2023? Will they go down?

Market predictions.

High prices in the U.S. housing market will plunge in the coming months as cash-strapped prospective homebuyers face rising mortgage rates. The mortgage rate on 30-year fixed loans reached 7.10% according to Mortgage News Daily. The same mortgage rate hovered below 3.5% in January.

According to projections, home prices are expected to decline by approximately 5% by mid-2023. Property values were previously expected to remain unchanged during that same period.

The deterioration in affordability will exclude many potential buyers from the market. That will reduce competition for homes, and sellers will eventually find it necessary to accept a lower price for their property.

6 Reasons why property management is necessary for a successful real estate investment

How important is a property management company?

Being a tenant and managing a rental property yourself involves more work than you would expect, especially if you are trying to grow your rental property business.

Handling tenant and maintenance issues, and being physically present at your rental properties is not always likely. These are the benefits of a property manager.

The benefits of hiring a property management company are not the only reason to consider investing in a property management company instead of being a renter on your own. Here are six reasons why a property management company might be a better landlord than you.

 

Proximity

If you don't physically live near your rental properties, it's difficult to manage the day-to-day operations as a landlord. This is why a property management company that is close to your rental investments is helpful. The property manager can handle the daily routine of your property. In circumstances where there is an emergency, they can be at the property immediately. As the owner of an investment property, this gives you the peace of mind that it is being well managed and that your tenants are taken care of.

 

Rental Pricing

A successful property management company will be knowledgeable about the current rental market and understand the trends occurring in rental rates or prices. They will help determine the right rental price for your properties based on factors such as location and amenities, and comparing going rates of similar properties. The rental management company helps you avoid overcharging the rental rate, preventing you from maximizing your monthly rental income, and also prevents you from overcharging and potentially having vacancies on the market for longer periods of time. A rental management company will also be able to test when it may be a good time to increase rental rates and by how much.

 

Finding the Right Tenant

One thing that is very important to finding tenants quickly is finding the right tenant and knowing how to evaluate them. A bad tenant can not only drain profits from a rental, but can cost you a lot of money. A good rental management company will have a robust system for screening tenants. Not only will their system be good, but they will have interviewed hundreds of tenants and realized the things you could be missing.

 

Maintenance, Inspection, and Inspection Department

Good property management companies have a maintenance department ready to address day-to-day repairs and tenant-reported emergencies, and keep tenants satisfied. In addition, it will perform inspections not only at move-outs, but also during the tenancy to make sure the property is in the care of the tenants. In addition, management companies establish relationships with all types of contractors, from maintenance workers to tradesmen and suppliers. That's why having a property manager overseeing your rental properties is essential for you as an investor.

 

Customer Service

Customer service and keeping your tenants happy may seem like an easy job, but sometimes landlords don't have the customer service skills necessary to deal with tenants. This can lead to tenant-landlord relationship breakdowns and eventually vacancies in your investment property. A property management company is experienced and familiar with the customer service needed to keep tenants satisfied from providing welcome packages to new tenants, quick turnaround times for maintenance and repairs, or collecting rents online for tenant convenience. An excellent property manager will take care of your tenants' needs.

 

Rules and regulations

You, as a landlord, are probably not up to date on the rules and regulations for rental properties. A property management company is up to date and helps you comply with the law. An experienced property manager can help you with:

- Inspections

- Housing regulations

- Housing and building codes.

- Notices

- Eviction procedures

 

A property management company makes sure you always comply with federal, state, and local laws when it comes to your rental property.

Hiring a property management company to oversee your rental properties makes sense. There are many benefits of having experienced property managers covering your investments and running the day-to-day operations. With the help of a property manager, you can maximize your profitability and consider expanding as a landlord.

Increase in rents in Miami

Miami is the city where rents increased the most in the US: the value in the city rose by 41%.

Another month, another record for U.S. single-family rents, which rose by 14% year over year in April, marking the 13th period of record annual gains.

Supply shortages and a strong labor market are driving prices higher, according to CoreLogic, a real estate data provider.

“We expect single-family rental growth to continue to increase at a rapid pace through 2022”, said Molly Boesel, chief economist at CoreLogic, in a statement.

Among the major metropolitan areas tracked by the company, Miami posted the biggest gain: nearly 41%. That's roughly seven times the city's 5.6% April 2021 growth rate. Meanwhile, East Coast metro areas, including New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., posted some of the lowest increases.

Elsewhere, U.S. existing home sales fell to their lowest level in two years in May, as prices rose to a record high -surpassing the $400,000 mark for the first time- while mortgage rates increased, pushing first-time buyers out of the market.

Despite the fourth consecutive monthly drop in sales and declining affordability, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Tuesday that the housing market remains quite hot, as properties remained on the market for a record 16 days last month.

“The market is far from weak,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. “The full impact of monetary tightening is likely to take some time to manifest itself.”

Existing home sales fell by 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million units last month, the lowest level since June 2020, when sales were recovering from the drop caused by COVID-19 confinements. Sales rose in the Northeast, but declined in the Midwest, West and South.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that sales would decline at a pace of 5.4 million units. Home resales, which account for the bulk of U.S. home sales, fell by 8.6% on a year-over-year basis.

May sales were mostly closings on contracts signed a month or two ago, before mortgage rates began to accelerate amid rising inflation expectations and aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 55 basis points last week to a 13 1/2-year average of 5.78%, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. This is the largest one-week rise since 1987. The rate has risen by more than 250 basis points since January.

The report added data on housing starts, building permits and homebuilder sentiment that suggests the market was losing velocity under the weight of higher borrowing costs.

A zero-value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical pace of growth. Fears of a recession have been on the rise following the Federal Reserve's decision last week to raise its interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, its largest increase since 1994.

The housing market is the sector most sensitive to interest rates. Its slowdown could help bring housing supply and demand back into alignment and lower prices.

The median existing home price rose by 15.8% from a year earlier to an all-time high of $407,600 in May. It was the first time it exceeded the $400,000 level.

With demand cooling, monthly supply is likely to continue improving.